Voter Billy: Suppose you have a friend named Billy. Billy is a very conservative Republican in New Jersey. He is a Rutgers student who just turned 19 in December of this year. He moved to New Jersey from Massachusetts a year ago. He is Latino, from a middle-class family and is attending Rutgers on an athletic scholarship to play football. He isnt that enthusiastic about politics. Voter Sandra: Suppose you have a friend named Sandra. Sandra is a moderate Democrat in New Jersey. She will complete her probation as part of a felony conviction in July 2020. She just turned 22 in December of this year. She has lived in NJ her entire life and plans to enroll at Rutgers next fall. She is white and from a wealthy family. Her parents are active in the NJ Democratic Party, but Sandra, herself, is not that interested in politics. Voter Kira: Suppose you have a friend named Kira. Kira is a very liberal Democrat in New Jersey who loves reading about politics. She will turn 18 in September 2024. She is from a lower-income family and will become the first in her family to attend college when she enrolls at Rutgers in the fall of 2024. She is working full-time as she finishes high school and plans to continue her full-time job during college. She was born in the US, but spent most of her childhood in Haiti (where her parents are from) before moving back to NJ at 14. After choosing the voter to write about, your essay should address all three of the following components below. Do you think the person will vote in the November 2024 presidential election? Your answer should rely on the Calculus of Voting and/or Civic Volunteerism frameworks, and it should provide three reasons why the person would or would not turn out to vote. Its OK if the reasons are a mix of both for/against turnout, but your essay should still have a thesis statement that makes an overall case for whether the person will turn out. If you were interested in increasing turnout among potential voters who are like your friend, what might be one strategy to do this? Justify the strategy using the course material to help support your answer. The strategy can, but does not necessarily have to be something you are personally capable of implementing. This can be an idea for others to implement or a formal institutional or policy change. After explaining why you think the strategy could be effective, also describe one reason why the strategy might not be successful increasing turnout. Justify this reason using course material to support your answer. Below is some information you are allowed but not required to use in your essay. If you are aware of other information about NJ or the presidential election, you may bring this information into your essays. However, no outside information about the specific context is required. In 2020, 57% of NJ voters voted for Biden, and 41% voted for Trump. Recently, registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans by a great margin in the state. In 2016, 68% of registered NJ voters turned out to vote. In 2020, this was about 72%, but in the 2021 NJ gubernatorial election, turnout was about 40% of registered voters. NJ does not have a stringent voter identification law. New Jersey permits early voting and no-excuse absentee voting. NJ bans people with felony convictions from voting until they have completed their sentence, including probation and parole. NJ has enacted a modified form of automatic voter registration where people who interact with the NJ Motor Vehicle Commission to apply for a license, are registered to vote unless they opt out. NJ is one of the most expensive places for campaigns to advertise on television. Course Material Findings on Voter Participation (Tufts University Report) I Youth voter turnout rates varied widely across the country.., New Jersey (67%), Minnesota (65%) vs. South Dakota (32%), Oklahoma (34%), and Arkansas (35%) had the lowest. I Electoral laws and policies had an impact. Researchers found a strong association between higher youth voting and states with more policies in place that make voting and registration easier. I Turnout among new voters is still lagging. In some states, the difference was stark: in South Dakota, where 32% of young people under 30 voted, just 12% of 18- and 19-year-olds cast a ballot. I Voter turnout was highest in states that mailed ballots to all registered voters.. Two frameworks for pollical engagement and voting Calculus of voting: change the question from why dont anyone vote? to why should someone vote? Voting as a collective action problem: the amount of turnout of other voters is large so one might think their one single vote might not matter. Civic Free Rider problem Calculus of Voting An individual votes if pB> C P: probability that the individual is pivotal (runoff elections could increase pivotability more since theres only two candidates) B: difference between the candidates attributes or policy stances The larger turnout the greater chance of voter voting Majority of public says there is great deal of difference in candidates C: costs of voting (time, information, money) Taking the day off, researching the candidate and spending money on transportation to get to polling places. When pivotality is low the cost always out weights the benefits of the pB. Observations of this formula: pB>C P is generally objectively tiny. One vote generally does not decide an election. Therefore, its is not rational for any individual to vote Puzzle/paradox of voting D: direct benefit from voting: intrinsic and extrinsic Intrinsic (warm glow) Extrinsic (social rewards, complying with social norms) Change the formula: pB+D>C If you turn out to vote one feel a social reward and one that does not vote will feel a social shame. The science researchers added the direct benefit of voting for those who do vote.